ECB to cut both deposit and refi rate 10bps - TDS

FXStreet (Bali) - According to TDS European Research Team, their base case is for the ECB to cut both deposit and refi rate 10bps.

Key Quotes

Base Case 45%: ECB cuts both deposit and refi rate 10bps. EURUSD falls but likely stalls around 1.3040 (Fibo support).

Upside risk: 40%: All rates unchanged. EURUSD rallies slightly but
likely capped 1.3160. 10%: ECB cuts only the refi rate. EURUSD challenges but likely stays above 1.3105.

Downside risk 5%: Both deposit and refi rate cut 15-20bps. EURUSD falls to at least 1.3000 potentially to 1.2960 on a break.