USD/MXN cracks range base, risks a move toward 18.60/18.15 – Société Générale

USD/MXN has broken decisively below its multi-month range base near 19.85/20.00, confirming a rounding top and exposing the pair to deeper downside. Prices are now approaching a key support trend line near 19.00/18.90—failure to hold here risks acceleration toward 18.60 and even 18.15. A short-term bounce is possible but likely capped at 19.44, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

Key trend support near 19 in focus as USD/MXN extends slide

"USD/MXN formed a rounding top and breached the lower limit of its multi-month range (19.85/20.00) denoting potential downside. It has experienced a steady down move after this break and is now drifting towards an ascending trend line drawn snice April 2024 near 19.00/18.90, which could be an interim support."

"A short-term bounce can’t be ruled out but recent pivot high at 19.44 may cap upside. Inability to defend 19/18.90 can lead to persistence in decline towards projections of 18.60 and 18.15."