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16 Apr 2015
NZD/USD to retain downward bias, AUD/NZD parity by year-end – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With New Zealand’s macro data looking soft and Fed expected to hike rates this year, Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, expects both AUD and NZD to remain depressed.
Key Quotes
“On our view that the Fed will hike rates this year, albeit not until Q4, we expect that AUD/USD can continue to trend lower this year towards 0.74 on a 6 mth view. We also expect the AUD to remain vulnerable against the NZD."
“Dairy prices at Fonterra’s latest GlobalDairy Trade auction this week fell 3.6%, the third decline in a row. A slowdown in Chinese growth and the strength of the NZD are being cited as reasons for the slump.”
“The drop in milk prices back towards a 5 year low has resulted in talk of pressure on rural incomes and on the government’s budget projections. However, the PM this week maintained an upbeat tone in describing the domestic economy referring to net migration, the Christchurch rebuild and investment in Auckland as the main drivers of growth.”
“Job ads remain strong although the pace appears to be slowing. A lessening in the pace of employment growth could dampen net migration later in the year and feed through into a slowdown in the very heady pace of house price gains.”
“However, as it stands there appears to be little prospect of the RBNZ cutting interest rates with the April 30 policy meeting likely to maintain the policy statement made last month that the economic outlook is “consistent with a period of stability in the OCR”.”
“Given our view that the Fed will be hiking rates before the end of the year we expect NZD/USD to retain a downward bias.”
“We also maintain our view that AUD/NZD will trend lower and test parity by the end of the year and favour selling rallies towards 1.03. A break above AUD/NZD1.05 would confirm a reversal in the downtrend.”
Key Quotes
“On our view that the Fed will hike rates this year, albeit not until Q4, we expect that AUD/USD can continue to trend lower this year towards 0.74 on a 6 mth view. We also expect the AUD to remain vulnerable against the NZD."
“Dairy prices at Fonterra’s latest GlobalDairy Trade auction this week fell 3.6%, the third decline in a row. A slowdown in Chinese growth and the strength of the NZD are being cited as reasons for the slump.”
“The drop in milk prices back towards a 5 year low has resulted in talk of pressure on rural incomes and on the government’s budget projections. However, the PM this week maintained an upbeat tone in describing the domestic economy referring to net migration, the Christchurch rebuild and investment in Auckland as the main drivers of growth.”
“Job ads remain strong although the pace appears to be slowing. A lessening in the pace of employment growth could dampen net migration later in the year and feed through into a slowdown in the very heady pace of house price gains.”
“However, as it stands there appears to be little prospect of the RBNZ cutting interest rates with the April 30 policy meeting likely to maintain the policy statement made last month that the economic outlook is “consistent with a period of stability in the OCR”.”
“Given our view that the Fed will be hiking rates before the end of the year we expect NZD/USD to retain a downward bias.”
“We also maintain our view that AUD/NZD will trend lower and test parity by the end of the year and favour selling rallies towards 1.03. A break above AUD/NZD1.05 would confirm a reversal in the downtrend.”