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Trading news
16 Apr 2015
USD/CAD: fade rallies above 1.2300 – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities, see further downside potential for USD/CAD, and hence suggest to sell any rallies above 1.2300 level.
Key Quotes
“Our daily model estimate pits FV around 1.2310, but we think that the risk of further downside in funds is likely especially after breaking through key technical support around 1.2360 (triggered by a much small DoE crude oil inventory build) after proving so tough to breach in the past three months.”
“We have noted in the past that a break of this support level would open downside potential towards the 1.19/1.20 level. We may not necessarily get there today; especially with WTI under pressure this morning but we would look to fade rallies above the 1.2300 level.”
“We think the next major trigger point for funds will be tomorrow with the simultaneous release of Canadian CPI (March) and retail sales (February). CPI will get less attention as implications for the quarter are pretty much baked into the cake following the Bank meeting and MPR forecasts so focus will be on retail sales, which we think may post a decent topline figure thanks to a strong boost from gasoline prices. We still like lower EURCAD and would fade rallies.”
Key Quotes
“Our daily model estimate pits FV around 1.2310, but we think that the risk of further downside in funds is likely especially after breaking through key technical support around 1.2360 (triggered by a much small DoE crude oil inventory build) after proving so tough to breach in the past three months.”
“We have noted in the past that a break of this support level would open downside potential towards the 1.19/1.20 level. We may not necessarily get there today; especially with WTI under pressure this morning but we would look to fade rallies above the 1.2300 level.”
“We think the next major trigger point for funds will be tomorrow with the simultaneous release of Canadian CPI (March) and retail sales (February). CPI will get less attention as implications for the quarter are pretty much baked into the cake following the Bank meeting and MPR forecasts so focus will be on retail sales, which we think may post a decent topline figure thanks to a strong boost from gasoline prices. We still like lower EURCAD and would fade rallies.”