اب سے ہم Elev8 ہیں
ہم صرف ایک بروکر نہیں ہیں۔ ہم ایک جامع ٹریڈنگ ایکوسسٹم ہیں—ہر چیز جو آپ کو تجزیے، ٹریڈ اور ترقی کے لیے درکار ہو، ایک ہی جگہ پر ہے۔ کیا آپ اپنی ٹریڈنگ کو بلند کرنے کے لیے تیار ہیں؟
ٹریڈنگ خبریں
27 Apr 2015
US: When in doubt, delay – BNP Paribas
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Alexandra Estiot of BNP Paribas, believes that US economic data weakness is likely to extend beyond the first quarter, and further share Boston Fed President’s comments that the expected soft growth data would defer any policy tightening.
Key Quotes
“The weakness of early 2015 was well documented, and not surprising. Still, it was usually attributed to once more a cold and snowy winter, the strikes in west coast ports being an additional temporary brake. The fact that no marked rebound occurred in March questions the temporary nature of the slowdown. This absence of rebound is perfectly captured in the latest issue of the Beige Book, a sum-up of anecdotal information collected by the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks.”
“To extract the general message, we came up with and indicator, the A2F Index, which allows converting those anecdotal information into figures.”
“The A2F Index took a dive in mid-April, down from already softening readings in January and March (the Beige Book is published just eight times a year). The reading is the lowest since autumn 2012, and consistent with GDP growth slowing further in the second quarter.”
“If you are willing to be optimistic, you will tend to remember that the US economy has been more seasonal since it recovered from the Great Contraction. Since early-2010, the average GDP growth had been just 0.6% in first quarters (quarterly annualised rate) versus 2.9% over the remaining three quarters.”
“On the contrary, if you tend to be a bit pessimistic, you will focus on the fact that, within the Beige Book, the weakness is quite generally attributed to the strength of the dollar (nineteen references, up from fifteen in March and eight in January).”
“As those effects usually take time to be fully felt, you would expect them to last beyond the first quarter. When in doubt, delay… Which is more or less what Boston Fed President, Eric S. Rosengren suggested in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal.”
“More precisely, M. Rosengren said that: “Then that [data that look like less than 2% growth] would be the condition that we would have to defer any monetary-policy tightening”.”
Key Quotes
“The weakness of early 2015 was well documented, and not surprising. Still, it was usually attributed to once more a cold and snowy winter, the strikes in west coast ports being an additional temporary brake. The fact that no marked rebound occurred in March questions the temporary nature of the slowdown. This absence of rebound is perfectly captured in the latest issue of the Beige Book, a sum-up of anecdotal information collected by the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks.”
“To extract the general message, we came up with and indicator, the A2F Index, which allows converting those anecdotal information into figures.”
“The A2F Index took a dive in mid-April, down from already softening readings in January and March (the Beige Book is published just eight times a year). The reading is the lowest since autumn 2012, and consistent with GDP growth slowing further in the second quarter.”
“If you are willing to be optimistic, you will tend to remember that the US economy has been more seasonal since it recovered from the Great Contraction. Since early-2010, the average GDP growth had been just 0.6% in first quarters (quarterly annualised rate) versus 2.9% over the remaining three quarters.”
“On the contrary, if you tend to be a bit pessimistic, you will focus on the fact that, within the Beige Book, the weakness is quite generally attributed to the strength of the dollar (nineteen references, up from fifteen in March and eight in January).”
“As those effects usually take time to be fully felt, you would expect them to last beyond the first quarter. When in doubt, delay… Which is more or less what Boston Fed President, Eric S. Rosengren suggested in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal.”
“More precisely, M. Rosengren said that: “Then that [data that look like less than 2% growth] would be the condition that we would have to defer any monetary-policy tightening”.”