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Trading news
27 Apr 2015
US GDP forecasts continue to move lower – SG
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, notes that US GDP forecasts for 2015 and 2016 continue to move lower and the Q1 GDP release ahead will match the downside trend, while Fed fund futures continue to climb higher.
Key Quotes
“US GDP forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are slowly coming down, repeating the pattern seen during every year since 2011. The 2015 GDP forecast stayed at 3% for longer than any of the previous four years but it's heading down and Q1 GDP data are unlikely to brake the fall much if they come in at the 1.1% rate we expect (data due Wednesday).”
“The positive is that Fed Funds futures reached new highs on Friday, priced for rates to be at 33bp at the end of this year and 96bp at the end of next year, so the market is ‘priced' for soggy data and (also on Wednesday) a non-event FOMC meeting.”
“Against this backdrop, it's no surprise that the dollar has lost its bid, temporarily. It'll take a change in the tone of the data (for the better) and resurrection of talk of earlier rate hikes to turn things round and while there is data on consumer confidence (tomorrow), pending home sales (Wednesday) and the manufacturing ISM report on Friday, the jobs data aren't until next week.”
Key Quotes
“US GDP forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are slowly coming down, repeating the pattern seen during every year since 2011. The 2015 GDP forecast stayed at 3% for longer than any of the previous four years but it's heading down and Q1 GDP data are unlikely to brake the fall much if they come in at the 1.1% rate we expect (data due Wednesday).”
“The positive is that Fed Funds futures reached new highs on Friday, priced for rates to be at 33bp at the end of this year and 96bp at the end of next year, so the market is ‘priced' for soggy data and (also on Wednesday) a non-event FOMC meeting.”
“Against this backdrop, it's no surprise that the dollar has lost its bid, temporarily. It'll take a change in the tone of the data (for the better) and resurrection of talk of earlier rate hikes to turn things round and while there is data on consumer confidence (tomorrow), pending home sales (Wednesday) and the manufacturing ISM report on Friday, the jobs data aren't until next week.”