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29 Jan 2016
US Durable goods suggest downside risk to 4Q15 GDP - ING
FXStreet (Delhi) - Rob Carnell, Research Analyst at ING, suggests that choppy US Durable goods data is not normally worth losing sleep over but as these data will feed into today’s first estimate of 4Q15 GDP, these numbers are worth a longer glance than usual.
Key Quotes
“December headline orders fell a worse-than-expected 5.1%mom, and November orders were revised lower to -0.5% from 0.0%.
The core figures were not much better, and definitely worse than expected. Core capital goods orders were down 4.3%mom (November orders were down -1.1% from an initial -0.3%), and core shipments were also down (-0.2%) with downward revisions to November data as well.
We will take a long hard look at our slightly-above-consensus 1.3%QoQ (saar) forecast for tomorrow’s GDP data. In particular, to see if we have a weak enough business investment figure. There is a good chance that we will trim that GDP forecast closer to the existing consensus (0.9%) though that will already be being revised lower as we speak, and the published consensus will now look optimistic to many.
With weather likely to weigh on 1Q16 GDP, and the Fed sounding more dovish by the day, our current forecast of two rate hikes from the Fed in 2016 is looking overly aggressive right now, and is also looking in need of downward modification.”
Key Quotes
“December headline orders fell a worse-than-expected 5.1%mom, and November orders were revised lower to -0.5% from 0.0%.
The core figures were not much better, and definitely worse than expected. Core capital goods orders were down 4.3%mom (November orders were down -1.1% from an initial -0.3%), and core shipments were also down (-0.2%) with downward revisions to November data as well.
We will take a long hard look at our slightly-above-consensus 1.3%QoQ (saar) forecast for tomorrow’s GDP data. In particular, to see if we have a weak enough business investment figure. There is a good chance that we will trim that GDP forecast closer to the existing consensus (0.9%) though that will already be being revised lower as we speak, and the published consensus will now look optimistic to many.
With weather likely to weigh on 1Q16 GDP, and the Fed sounding more dovish by the day, our current forecast of two rate hikes from the Fed in 2016 is looking overly aggressive right now, and is also looking in need of downward modification.”