DN to cut interest rates in March, slower intervention- Danske

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Senior Analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen from Danske Bank expects a rate cut of 10 basis points from the Danish National Bank and they forecast EUR/DKK at 7.4550 in 1 to 12 months. They noted that the DN slowed the pace of intervention in January.

Key Quotes:

“We expect DN to mirror a 10bp ECB rate cut in March, lowering the key policy rate to minus 0.75%, although we stress that it is a close call given that EUR/DKK continues to trade above the central rate.”

“In January, the FX reserve declined to DKK430bn, from DKK434bn in December. DKK7.7bn of the decline was due to DN purchasing DKK in FX intervention.”

“The 7 January rate hike does seems to have worked in capping EUR/DKK upside and we thus expect DN to mirror a 10bp rate cut from ECB in March, leaving the rate of interest on certificates of deposit at minus 0.75%. However, as previously noted, we stress that it is a close call, since EUR/DKK continues to trade above the central rate of 7.46038 and since DN might have needed to make some FX intervention after 7 January.”

“We forecast EUR/DKK at 7.4550 in 1M-12M.”