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3 Feb 2016
Eurozone retail sales recovered in December - ING
FXStreet (Delhi) – Bert Colijn, Research Analyst at ING, notes that the Eurozone retail sales have rebounded in December.
Key Quotes
“The 0.3% growth came on the back of an upward adjusted November figure, which was now flat from October. Retail sales had been declining since August, while the overall recovery of the labour market continues, oil prices declined and consumer confidence remains above its long-term average. This puzzle has been corrected somewhat by the pick-up in December, as sales are now back at the August 2015 level. This ends the year on a moderately positive note for consumption growth. Especially food, drinks and tobacco performed well with 0.6% growth in December, which gives the impression that European dinners were particularly tasty this holiday season.
While the consumer has been more cautious in the second half than the first half of 2015, the consumption outlook remains positive. As the unemployment rate declined steadily in November and December and real wages have been boosted by the further fall in oil prices, retail sales is likely to recover further in the first months of 2016.
In terms of monetary policy, this rebound in sales will come as a bit of relief for the hawks. A continued slump in retail sales would have raised concerns about a possible halt in the domestic recovery, which would have added to concerns about consumer price growth ahead of the March meeting of the ECB. The uptick in sales in December therefore results in a more positive view about the current domestic environment in the Eurozone.”
Key Quotes
“The 0.3% growth came on the back of an upward adjusted November figure, which was now flat from October. Retail sales had been declining since August, while the overall recovery of the labour market continues, oil prices declined and consumer confidence remains above its long-term average. This puzzle has been corrected somewhat by the pick-up in December, as sales are now back at the August 2015 level. This ends the year on a moderately positive note for consumption growth. Especially food, drinks and tobacco performed well with 0.6% growth in December, which gives the impression that European dinners were particularly tasty this holiday season.
While the consumer has been more cautious in the second half than the first half of 2015, the consumption outlook remains positive. As the unemployment rate declined steadily in November and December and real wages have been boosted by the further fall in oil prices, retail sales is likely to recover further in the first months of 2016.
In terms of monetary policy, this rebound in sales will come as a bit of relief for the hawks. A continued slump in retail sales would have raised concerns about a possible halt in the domestic recovery, which would have added to concerns about consumer price growth ahead of the March meeting of the ECB. The uptick in sales in December therefore results in a more positive view about the current domestic environment in the Eurozone.”