US: July CPI Preview - Nomura

Research Team at Nomura published the preview of the US CPI report due tomorrow, with expectations of the headline inflation data to have probably slowed slightly following a 0.2% advance in the previous month.

Key Quotes:

“We expect headline CPI to increase by 0.09% m-o-m (+0.95% y-o-y) in July. Headline CPI inflation probably slowed slightly following a 0.2% advance in the previous month”

“Reflecting the fact that crude oil prices stopped their upward trend in July, retail gasoline prices declined for the first time since February of this year. We estimate that the CPI’ gasoline prices fell by 4.9% m-o-m on a seasonally adjusted basis in July”

“All in all, we are looking for a modest decline of 0.04% m-o-m in the overall food price index”

“Excluding food and energy, we forecast that core CPI inflation remained essentially unchanged at 0.173% m-o-m (+2.252% y-o-y) in July after +0.170% in the previous month”