US NFP: Consensus is for a rise of 175K – RBC CM

Adam Cole, Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that the US payrolls is likely to dominate the day ahead and the consensus is for a rise of 175K (RBC economists are in line) and this does not appear to have changed much after the ADP or ISM non-manufacturing (though both were weak).

Key Quotes

“The consensus of forecasts that have been refreshed is little different at 171K. Even after the decline in Fed hike expectations as political uncertainty has risen this week, markets seem quite fully priced at around a 75% probability of a hike by year-end. As such, we think USD would fall further on a weak outcome than it would rally on a strong one.”