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13 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: Impressive US data is helping the dollar - BTMU
Derek Halpenny of the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that US data has impressed, which has been helping the dollar but our view is that this impressive run of data may be less so over the coming months as the payrolls tax, the sequester and rising gasoline prices eat into discretionary spending power.
He writes, “The IDB/TIPP Consumer Confidence fell sharply last week and gasoline prices advanced 16% from the middle of January to the middle of February raising the risks that consumer spending takes a hit. The retail sales consensus excluding gasoline and autos is a modest 0.2% m/m increase. We should prepare for weaker US data and for the possibility of some dollar reversal after recent strong gains.”
He writes, “The IDB/TIPP Consumer Confidence fell sharply last week and gasoline prices advanced 16% from the middle of January to the middle of February raising the risks that consumer spending takes a hit. The retail sales consensus excluding gasoline and autos is a modest 0.2% m/m increase. We should prepare for weaker US data and for the possibility of some dollar reversal after recent strong gains.”