UK to hardexit EU by 2019 - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that we assume that Article 50 is triggered next month and the UK hardexits the EU (i.e. leaves the Single Market) by early 2019. 

Key Quotes:

"We expect some kind of interim agreement to prevent a tariff cliff-edge at that point, but expect it to take a number of years more before a comprehensive free trade agreement is negotiated and comes into effect. It is not, of course, possible to have a view on the UK these days without taking a stance on the likely outcome of Brexit."

"Following the referendum result to leave the EU last June there has been much uncertainty as to what type of Brexit the UK would end up agreeing to, typically described in “boiled-egg language” – hard, soft, or something in between – and our strategy team has spent much time discussing the issues since the vote.

We will not spend much time here adding to the column inches on how Brexit will pan out over the coming days, months and years. But it is important to set out our stall of what we can reasonably expect from Brexit, upon which we then base our UK macroeconomic and policy views. To that end, the Prime Minister’s speech last month (17 January 2017) on Brexit has helped frame the debate, though much uncertainty remains."