EUR/USD breaks multi-day range, climbs to highest since November

The euro gained enough strength against the US dollar to break a key short-term resistance located around 1.0950. EUR/USD rose to 1.0978, hitting the highest level since the day of the US elections results (November 8). 

Near the end of the session, the pair is trading at 1.0965/70, up 90 pips and headed toward the highest daily close in months. 

NFP and then Elections 

The rally of the euro is taking place the day before the release of the US employment report. Today’s US reports showed mix data. Initial jobless claims fell more-than-expected (238K vs 244K) and Factory Orders gained less than market consensus (+0.2% vs +0.4%). According to market expectations, nonfarm payrolls are likely to rise by 185K. Traders will also look at hourly earning numbers. 

Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: who cares? USD will fall anyway

Friday would be the last day before the French election on Sunday. The latest poll from IFOP, shows Macron beating Le Pen by 61% to 39%. A victory of Le Pen is likely to create market tensions in Europe and would put the euro under severe downside pressure. 

EUR/USD Technical outlook 

The break of the 1.0950 barrier, opened the door to more gains and a probable test of the next relevant resistance located at the psychological 1.1000. Above that area, the next resistance could be seen at 1.1040. 

If the pair is rejected from above 1.0950, falling back to the 1.0950 - 1.0850 range, that has been in place since April 25, the euro would lose the bullish impulse. The greenback needs to break the 1.0850 support area, to clear the way to more gains.