US: Bad things happen with a strong dollar - Westpac

Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac points out that when the Wall Street Journal released quotes from its interview with US president Trump last week, the focus was on comments about who might be the next Fed chair and Trump’s “disappointment” in Attorney General Sessions.

Key Quotes

“But the full transcript (on Politico) – along with surreal discussion of the speech to Boy Scouts etc – included some helpful clues to Trump’s economic policy approach.”

“On FX policy, Trump said, “I like a dollar that’s not too strong. I mean, I’ve seen strong dollars. And frankly, other than the fact that it sounds good, lots of bad things happen with a strong dollar.” This followed his declaration that “low interest rates are good.”

“Trump’s concern over dollar strength and preference for loose monetary policy is well worth noting but probably doesn’t have near term market implications. Arguably more imminent is action on trade policy. As part of a long answer to a question on a US-UK trade deal, Trump said, “If you go back to Jefferson, you go back to all of these great, great people that ran the United States properly, it was really based on a certain form of tariff and a certain form of protection.”

“There were also reports this week that the White House is planning to soon announce sanctions on China focused on intellectual property. In a WSJ op-ed on Monday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross complained about European and Chinese tariffs on a range of goods, so the press reports seem well founded. Combined with the souring of US-China relations over North Korea, risks over US trade policy seem to have increased notably compared to the relative calm of the months following China president Xi’s visit to Mar-a-Lago.”

“FX volatility may not be quite as stunningly low as equity volatility but surely FX markets are not fully priced for an escalation of trade tensions. This may be a source of short-covering support for USD/majors, though dollar gains could be short-lived, with significant headwinds in Sep-Oct.”