US: Looking for a 190k rise in NFP - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac are looking for a 190k rise in US July employment numbers after they posted a figure of 222k in its previous print.

Key Quotes

“It has been an interesting six months for employment growth in the US, nonfarm payrolls reporting month-average growth of 224k in Jan/Feb; a weak 50k in Mar; then 207k in Apr; 152k in May; and 222k in June. The net result is a month-average pace of 180k, broadly in line with 2016.”

“At this stage in the economic cycle, given full employment has been reached, employment growth should have slowed. But it hasn't and partial indicators remains supportive of further strong gains. In Jul, we look for a 190k rise.”

“Since January, the unemployment rate has consequently fallen from 4.8% to 4.4% in June. Participation has also been a factor, edging 0.2ppts lower to 62.8%. In Jul, we expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged, with any surprise in employment to be offset by participation.”