UK jobs: Unemployment rate could drop to 4.4% - HSBC

HSBC analysts offer a sneak peek on what to expect from the UK labour market report, which will be reported at 0830GMT later today.

Key Quotes:

“The unemployment rate dropped to 4.5% in the three months to May 2017 - matching the Bank of England's estimate for the equilibrium rate. Despite this, wage growth remained subdued, with total pay up less than 2% 3m/yr.

The employment growth rate has slowed a bit, but remains remarkable, considering the slowdown in activity over H1 2017.

We expect more of the same in this release: unchanged unemployment and still weak pay growth. The risks to unemployment could even be to the downside, with a drop to 4.4% not out of the question.”