USD: Choppy consolidation - SocGen

In view of Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, the main FX story is the choppy dollar consolidation.

Key Quotes

“The Minutes do nothing to move the debate. If there's an underlying story it's that where the dollar goes from here, it's less about the US and Fed policy than about what other central bankers do. US steady growth and slow-motion tightening are set to continue. So eyes move to the ECB because along with relief at the rebuttal of European populism, and better growth, the euro's bounce was triggered by expectations of further ECB tapering and more prosaically, higher Bund yields. The current EUR/USD range is only a stepping stone for a move to 1.20 and beyond if 1) the range-trading allows positions to become more balanced and 2) the ECB demonstrates that it is still on a journey to policy normalization, however slow.”