Biz yalnızca bir aracı kurumdan fazlasıyız. Analiz etmek, işlem yapmak ve büyümek için ihtiyacınız olan her şeyi tek bir yerde sunan, hepsi bir arada bir işlem ekosistemiyiz. İşlem deneyiminizi bir üst seviyeye taşımaya hazır mısınız?
In view of Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, the Aussie dollar looked tired in the first half of August, closing lower on 9 of the 11 trading days from August 1-15.
Key Quotes
“This price action aligned well with the chart across, which shows an unusually large AUD net long stance among leveraged funds in the futures market. When positions are historically stretched – the longest stance since April 2013 when AUD/USD was 1.05 – the Aussie often struggles to find new buyers.”
“This positioning suggested AUD/USD was vulnerable to both heightened risk aversion and any broad USD gains. Risk appetite has improved over the past week, with US equity market losing interest in commentary over North Korea, a shift arguably later validated by the somewhat surprising announcement from Pyongyang that it would not proceed with the plan to fire missiles into the waters around Guam.”
“So that’s a positive for AUD, with volatility benchmarks easing back and global stocks picking up this week. But the US dollar traded strongly to start the week, trimming AUD/USD to just above 0.7800, a four week low. NY Fed president Dudley brushed aside the low July CPI reading, though as Rich notes on p3, inflation has been undershooting expectations for months. Overall US data has been tending to the firm side, which may yet support the dollar short term.”
“Yet it is hard to be overly optimistic on USD in the week ahead. The FOMC minutes sounded a little more cautious and pricing for a rate hike by Dec (Westpac’s base case) seems likely to remain under 50%. The deepening divisions among Republicans reinforce concerns over September’s busy legislative session, where agreement needs to be reached on government funding and raising the debt ceiling.”
“If these concerns outweigh the USD support from firm activity data then AUD/USD downside could be limited to the low-0.78 area, but any trade above 0.80 would also prove fleeting.”
