When is UK GDP and how could it affect GBP/USD?

UK Second Estimate GDP Q2 Overview

The UK docket has the second readout of Q2 GDP report, which will be published later this session at 8.30GMT. The second estimate of the United Kingdom GDP is expected to remain steady 0.3% in the second quarter, same as that seen in the preliminary reading. The annualized reading is also expected to remain unchanged at 1.7% in Q2.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.5 to -2.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 70 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

The spot could take a beating on a softer GDP print and drop further towards mid-1.27s. On an upside surprise, the GBP/USD pair is likely to attempt a minor recover above 1.28 handle.

However, limited reaction is expected on the data release, as the main risk event for markets remains the Jackson Hole Symposium starting later today.

Technically, “From a technical perspective, the pair still seems far from being oversold and with short-term momentum indicators holding in negative territory, the bearish slide is more likely to get extended towards mid-1.2700s. A follow through selling pressure would risk a test of sub-1.27 level, marking 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2109-1.3269 up-move, before the pair eventually drops to the very important 200-day SMA support, currently near the 1.2655-50 region. On the flip side, any recovery attempts back above the 1.2800 handle might now confront some fresh supply near the 1.2825-30 region (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level),” Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet explains.

Key Notes

UK: Second estimate Q2 GDP preview – HSBC

UK: Focus on second GDP estimate for Q2 – Danske Bank

About UK Second Estimate GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).