2019: The year of changes – Natixis

Patrick Artus, Research Analyst at Natixis believes that 2019 could be a very different year from 2017 and 2018 for global economy.

Key Quotes

“Global demand for oil will grow faster than global oil production, which could (finally) lead to a noticeable rise in the oil price, leading to a shortfall in growth and additional inflation in OECD countries.”

“The return to real full employment (once the unemployment rate has returned to the level of the structural unemployment rate and the participation rate and the employment rate have stopped rising) in the United States and the euro zone is likely to occur in late 2018, which means that in 2019 wages should accelerate, inflation should rise and monetary policies should really become more restrictive.”