Market wrap: risk aversion appeared to fade ahead of Yellen, dollar bid - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered their market wrap for Tuesday.

Key Quotes:

"Global market sentiment: US interest rates and the US dollar rose ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech, as risk aversion appeared to fade.

Interest rates: US 10yr yields rose from 2.21% to 2.25% ahead of Yellen’s speech, 2yr yields from 1.42% to 1.45. Fed fund futures yields firmed, to price the chance of a December rate hike at 76% (from 71%). Yellen’s speech was mixed, and yields fell 2bp afterwards.

Currencies: The US dollar index rose 0.4% to a one-month high. EUR fell from 1.1850 to 1.1758 – a one-month low. USD/JPY rose from 111.50 to 112.48. AUD fell from 0.7940 to 0.7859 – a six-week low. NZD similarly fell from 0.7250 to 0.7168 – a three-week low. AUD/NZD ranged sideways between 1.0940 and 1.0980, after rising yesterday following some weak NZ economic data.

Economic Wrap

US new home sales fell 3.4% in August (vs +2.5% expected), possibly storm-impacted (the South fell most). Corelogioc house prices rose 0.4% in July and 5.8% yoy (vs 5.7% expected). All 20 cities surveyed posted annual gains, led by Seattle. Richmond Fed manufacturing activity rose from 14 to 19 (vs 13 expected).

Fed Chair Yellen said the Fed should be wary of moving too gradually and that it is imprudent to keep the policy on hold until inflation reaches the 2% target. However she spent more time discussing downside risks to inflation, leaving markets with a mixed tone overall. Bostic was comfortable with a December hike."