USD has probably made a cycle low - Westpac

Despite reasonably firm US data and ongoing improvement in yield support the DXY’s uptrend has stalled, points out Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“Upside catalysts in the form of a potentially hawkish Fed Chair have been dashed and risk appetite has taken a knock, holding the USD back in the near term. Key big picture risks during the next few weeks include: tax cut progress through Congress, and shutdown risks around the 8 Dec government funding expiry, and Yellen’s speech next week.”

“3 months ahead: The house and Senate tax plans differ markedly and it’s not clear there is a compromise that could pass both chambers. The Senate has more stringent rules and thus includes delays to corporate tax cuts and controversially, the full repeal of state and local income and property taxes, a measure that could easily lose 20-30 House Republican votes (cannot afford to lose more than 22 House votes). Republicans hope to have legislation on the President’s desk by Xmas but challenges in crafting a single bill that fits competing interests in the House and Senate make that a tough ask.”