EUR: New lows in 2018 - AmpGFX

The fall in the EUR/USD from highs around 1.25 to near 1.19 may have priced-in the slower pace of growth, but the ongoing soft tone in the data may threaten further declines and keep the EUR topside limited for the near term, suggests Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD tested its low for the year in January of 1.1916, briefly pushing below this level (to a new low for the year (just below 1.1900), before rebounding to around 1.1930.”

“The EUR has fallen into the consolidation range during the second half of last year (between a low of 1.1554 in Nov and a high of 1.2092 in Sep).  We might expect it to move further into this range given the current soft state of the Eurozone data relative to the solid trend in the US.”

“A key support for EUR/USD is likely to be the high in 2015 and low in Dec-17, roughly around the middle of this consolidation zone. (1.1715/20).”