Germany: Sharp fall in November industrial orders – ING

According to Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, drought in German order books and the manufacturing slump is getting worse as new industrial orders dropped by 1.3% month-on-month in November, from 0.2% in October (revised upwards from -0.4% MoM).

Key Quotes

“On the year, new orders were down by a dire 6.5%. According to the statistical agency, the November fall is mainly due to a sharp drop in bulk orders. Excluding bulk orders, November orders were up by 1% MoM. While the sharp October decline in domestic orders was partly reversed (+1.6% MoM, from -3.2%), foreign orders fell by 3.1%.”

“The great order book deflation in German industry continues. In fact, it looks as if 2019 will be the second year in a row in which new orders have fallen. In 2018, orders dropped by 0.4% on average. Currently, 2019 is on track to record a monthly average drop of some 0.6%.”

“Ahead of the Great Recession, order books shrank by 2.9% on average every month in 2008.”

“All in all, there are still no signs at all of a bottoming out for German industry. Instead, the free fall continues. In fact, there is simply one word to describe the current state of the German industry: ‘dire’.”