Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to drop below $1,850 as DXY subjects to rebound, focus is on US NFP

• Gold price looks to slip below $1,850.00 as the DXY may rebound ahead of jobless data.
• The US NFP is expected to print the job additions of 310k.
• A tight labor market may force the Fed to sound extremely hawkish in June monetary policy.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is expected to tumble below the crucial support of $1,850.00 on expectations of a rebound in the US dollar index (DXY) as a significant fall in an asset consecutively for two weeks is followed by a minor rebound. The precious metal remained stronger last week after a recovery move from the psychological support of $1,800.00. Investors put bets on the precious metal as the hangover of policy tightening got diluted.

This week investors will keep focusing on the US Employment Data. The labor market has remained stronger in the US economy unlike the other nations, which failed to generate sufficient job opportunities. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) later this week. The US administration is expected to report the addition of 310k job opportunities this month against the prior print of 428k. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain stable at 3.6%. A higher-than-expected US NFP data may spurt a rally in the DXY as the occurrence will result in an extreme hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Gold technical analysis

On a daily scale, gold bulls have attacked the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,856.60. Considering the action on the daily chart, a bear cross of 20- and 200-EMA near $1,855.00 looks likely. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is displaying an alternative action. The RSI (14) has shifted from the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 to the 40.00-60.00 range, which diminishes the downside bias. After interpreting the bear cross and neutral RSI (14), a future consolidation move looks likely.

Gold daily chart